How much more snow and when will it end?
UPDATE Saturday 9:00…
We’re starting to turn the corner now. Here are some updates as we continue through this snowy, wintry morning.
–The heaviest band of snow has now moved about 20 miles off the coast. Conditions have therefore improved along the Jersey Shore. Light to moderate snow continues to fall across the state.
–Additional accumulation? About half an inch to one inch for most of the state. Maybe up to two inches in the “sweet spot” of coastal counties.
— We just had a few gusts over 40 mph near the coast too, keeping blizzard conditions. And keep wind chills in single digits. Br!
–The threat of coastal flooding is over. All gauges fell below flood stage, water receded and these warnings/advisories were dropped.
Everything else in my morning forecast message below still stands. Be careful and stay warm there!
ORIGINAL POST from 7:20..
What weather is it?
Snowy. And windy. It’s a mess in much of New Jersey early this Saturday morning. And we still have several hours of stormy, wintry weather ahead.
So far, the predictions have been unfolding remarkably close to forecast. Really heavy snow was limited to areas southeast of the NJ Turnpike, especially along our coastal counties. The National Weather Service estimates that early morning snowfall rates have occasionally exceeded 2″ per hour. Combined with wind gusts of over 40 mph, we have high drifts and very low visibility (near whiteout , in fact).
Further north and west, conditions were drier but still wintry. Light to moderate snow fell steadily throughout the morning.
Also, at the time of this writing (6:30 am), we have passed high tide along the Atlantic Ocean, coming over the crest of back bays and tributaries. So far, tidal guidance has been spot on with its “minor” flood stage exceedance estimate. There could be areas of water flooding, on the order of a foot or two, in low-lying or particularly vulnerable areas.
And, of course, it’s also very cold outside. Temperatures are in the 20s. Wind chills are in the single digits and teens.
How much snow so far?
Early morning snowfall sightings are hard to come by, but we saw several towns in Ocean, Atlantic, and Cape May counties with double-digit snowfall (over 10 inches). This includes Port Republic, Cape May, Forked River and Toms River. South East Monmouth County is also approaching this mark.
Farther north and west we exceed 8 inches in Burlington counties, 6 inches in Camden and Gloucester, and probably exceed about 5 inches in parts of Mercer and Middlesex. Drier air was the winner in northwestern New Jersey, but Wantage in Sussex County has still seen 2.5 inches of accumulation so far.
How much more snow is expected?
Studying the latest radar trends and model guidance, as of 6 am I believe we are potentially within another inch or two of accumulation along the western edge of New Jersey (Delaware River). Closer to shore you’ll probably add another 4-6 inches by the time things finish. (Again, this is in addition to anything that has already fallen by 6 a.m. Saturday.)
When will this end?
The bulk of the storm will continue until about 10 a.m. Saturday morning. This will include heavy snow along the coast and moderate snowfall further inland. The strongest winds will also occur in the morning, up to 40mph inland and 50mph on the coast.
Beyond 10 a.m., we should see the snowfall and the wind calm down. And it will allow road crews to finally get ahead of the storm and get the main roads cleared.
But the snow will continue to fall until Saturday afternoon. I expect final flakes between 1 p.m. (west) and 5 p.m. (east).
What awaits us?
Calm but cold weather sets in as we prepare to wrap up January.
On Saturday night, temperatures will dip into the single digits across most of New Jersey. Factor in the bitter breeze (around 15 mph) and you get wind chills in the “danger zone” as low as -10 degrees.
Sunday will be sunny and dry, but we’re stuck below freezing all day. Highs will only hit the upper 20s at best.
Partly sunny and 30s on Monday and Tuesday. Mostly cloudy and 30s Wednesday.
Our next storm system is expected to arrive in New Jersey between Thursday and Friday. Right now it looks like it will come with some warmer air. So I would call it a rain-mix event. But let’s see how the patterns will break down over the next few days.
Be smart. Be careful. Be hot.