Bilbao motivated in front of the guys from the GC
What does the scene look like?
It’s fascinating to see the race heading towards the Apennines, where 187 km of hilly terrain, including three categorized climbs, risk seeing the peloton breaking up. Although the arrival of the stage is a slightly descending plateau, the Passerino glue Precedes it, a climb of 4.2 km through the forest with an average gradient of 10%.
It is one thing to determine who might enjoy this final climb, but quite another to determine who will still be in contention at this point. This is a step on which we must be careful.
Who are the favorites?
The first market movements consider the main contenders for the general classification as favorites, with Simon yates (7.006/1) and Egan Bernal (9h008/1) business section. While they both have the firepower to win a stage like this, it’s hard to see what their motivation would be: there is little to be gained in terms of the overall race (the time gaps between the best runners will be weak), but a lot to lose from excessive running too soon.
Hopes of the pink jersey, Remco Evenepoel (15.0014/1) is the most likely to stake the matter out: he exudes the boldness of youth and will appreciate this journey. However, it is questionable whether he still has the ability to be competitive on such a testing stage, so those odds seem a bit slim.
Who are the most likely foreigners?
Pello Bilbao (40.0039/1) showed at the Giro 2019 just how suited he is to those more difficult hilly stages – winning two – and his victory on the mountainous 4th stage of the recent Tour of the Alps shows he’s in sparkling form. At such odds, it is the value bet.
At potentially huge odds, however, it’s also worth having a speculative interest in Matej mohoric (200.00199/1). This stage is remarkably similar to the one he won at the 2017 Vuelta, and given that his chances of success in this Giro will be limited, he will likely try to cause another upheaval here. At the time of writing this article the market has not rated it, so 200.00199/1 may not be available, but nothing more 80.0079/1 would earn him an interest.
What effect will this have on all markets?
There will certainly be some movement in the overall standings, and the pink jersey is likely to leave Filippo Ganna’s shoulders, but anyone serious about grabbing the overall honors should be close enough on the final climb. A few seconds could be gained and lost, but nothing should be terminal at the end of the day.
Peter Sagan has moved up the points standings in stage 3, and will be looking to earn maximum points in the intermediate sprints here. Also expect Vincenzo Albanese, who won the Climbers jersey in Stage 2, to be in another early breakaway attempting to sweep points from the mountains. But this is a market where it is still too early to get involved.
* Odds are correct at time of writing